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Should you ignore housing data?
May 31, 2012
National data on home prices are sometimes contradictory — should the numbers be factored in to your decision to buy or sell a home?
This post comes from AnnaMaria Andriotis at partner site SmartMoney.
Data released Wednesday morning shows U.S. home prices continue to fall — a stark contrast with a Realtors’ report released last week. Which numbers should home buyers and sellers believe?
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported today that U.S. home prices fell nearly 3% for the three months ending in March compared with a year prior. Nationally, prices hit new post-crisis lows with average home prices in five cities — Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, New York and Portland — reaching a new bottom.
In contrast, the National Association of Realtors‘ data for March showed that median prices for existing-home sales rose 2.5% from a year prior. Last week, NAR released its April report, which showed prices spiked 10%.
Much of the discrepancy comes down to how the two groups measure sales. The NAR tracks existing homes that sell each month, while the S&P/Case-Shiller looks at repeat sales, meaning the price a home recently sold for compared with what the same property fetched its previous sale.
In other words, the S&P is looking at how the price of a specific home changes over time, while the NAR is looking at the prices of homes sold in one month versus previous ones. If more large, expensive homes sell during one month, that will push the median price the NAR tracks up, but it may not mean prices overall are rising.
On top of that, the NAR’s data is monthly while the S&P/Case-Shiller is based on a three-month moving average.
For homebuyers and sellers, the two reports make it difficult to discern if the housing recovery is gaining steam or if home prices will continue to tread along the bottom for some time. “Because of the peculiarities of the housing market, trying to gauge it on a monthly basis is very hard,” says John Vogel, adjunct professor of real estate at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business
For homebuyers and sellers, the two reports make it difficult to discern if the housing recovery is gaining steam or if home prices will continue to tread along the bottom for some time. “Because of the peculiarities of the housing market, trying to gauge it on a monthly basis is very hard,” says John Vogel, adjunct professor of real estate at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business. (Post continues below.)But experts say the national data impact buyer and seller psychology. For instance, when home prices stay low, fewer sellers are willing to sell their homes on the cheap. As of April, for-sale listings of existing homes were down 22% from a year prior, according to the NAR.
While rising sales have pushed inventory down, housing analysts say listings are dropping because homeowners are choosing to wait until the housing recovery gains momentum and their homes can sell for more money.
National data is less important than local information
The NAR, however, says individual buyers and sellers shouldn’t pay much attention to the national data. “These numbers are meaningless to people making buying and selling decisions in local markets,” says spokesman Walter Molony. Instead, he says, they should be viewed as a broad indicator.
Maureen Maitland, vice president of S&P Indices, says people shouldn’t take one month of data as the story for the year but should look over several months of data.
Rather than tracking national data, home buyers and sellers should focus on data within their local housing market, says Jack McCabe, an independent housing analyst in Deerfield Beach, Fla.
Consumers can find out what prices homes in the neighborhood have been selling for by searching listing sites such as Trulia and Zillow that show recent purchases prices for homes. They can also speak with independent housing experts in their market or with real estate agents.
For those who choose to pay attention to the national data, experts recommend digging deeper into the reports. For instance, the NAR tracks home prices for up to 156 metro areas on a quarterly basis. Beyond that, its associations in larger states, including California, New York and Illinois, go further, providing data (on its website) on even more cities and towns.
In high-priced markets in large cities, the S&P Case-Shiller is a helpful starting point, experts say: It offers buyers and sellers data on how higher-priced homes are performing compared with the other price points in the same city.
National Open House Weekend…it’s THIS weekend!
April 24, 2012
What is going on this weekend? NATIONAL OPEN HOUSE WEEKEND! The 2012 event will be bigger and better than ever, with hundreds of thousands of Open Houses across the nation and currently in 13 other countries… It’s gone global! RE/MAX Professional Associates is taking a huge part in this (inter)national weekend with many of our available listings. Please see below for a brief list but be sure to send me an email or give me a call to find out everything that is open in your area. I would be happy to provide you with a complete list of homes with times!
Saturday April 28th
77 Congress St, Fitchburg: 12pm – 2pm
Classic Victorian! Short sale opportunity with over 2700 sq feet!
39 Tannery Road, Sturbridge: 11 am – 1 pm
Beautiful newer colonial with all the extras – hardwoods, maple cabinets and granite!
240 Dudley-Southbridge Road, Dudley: 2pm – 3:30 pm
So many updates and so affordable! Title V in hand! NOT a short sale or bank owned so quick close!
5 Pleasant Street, Marlborough: 12pm – 2pm
Classic west side Victorian with double French doors to the sun porch and four bedrooms! Walk up attic – so much space and so well cared for!
24 Wales Street, Millbury: 12pm – 2pm
Easy to own and easy to update! Great price on this 3 bed/1.5 bath with 2 car heated garage that is in a great commuter location but with a private yard!
12 Cottage Street, Ware: 2pm – 4pm
HUGE updated Victorian in a great location off Church Street! 6 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and 4,400+ sq feet! 2 story barn and 2 car garage! NOT a short!
101 Temple Street, West Boylston: 11am – 1pm
Newer construction with full in-law and 2.9 acres right by the lake! Great commuter location and this house has all the extras – granite, hardwoods, solid cabinets, TWO master bedrooms with private baths!
6 Carol Lane, Blackstone: 11am – 12:30pm
Great price on this newer colonial on a quiet street! Updated kitchen with ceramic tile and granite – new roof, new siding, new deck, refinished hardwoods. 4 beds/2.5 baths/2 car garage
1565 Main Street, Holden: 1pm – 3pm
NEW construction with a flair! 4 beds/3baths and location location location! All the extras are here PLUS some you didn’t know you wanted!
374 Mashapaug Rd, Holland – 12pm – 2:30pm
Charming 2BR Ranch, fantastic lot, inground pool w/patio, rustic stone fireplace in walkout basement, cathedral ceilings in living room
7 Knollwood Rd, Brimfield – 2:30pm -4:30 pm
New construction w/hdwd flrs, ss appls, cntr islnd, 1car gar, opn flr pln, deck, near Lake Sherman.
Sunday April 29th
13 Leisure Drive, Holland: 12pm – 1:30 pm
WATERFRONT with 3 beds and 1.5 baths! Over 50 feet of frontage and triple sliders to enjoy it!
17 Forrest St, Brookfield: 12pm – 2pm
WOW! Cedar log home! Private lot with 3 bed/2 baths/2 car garage! Must see!
9 Ansonia, Worcester: 12pm – 2pm
3 bed/1.5 bath with a fireplace and near UMASS! Great price and great alternative to renting!
45 Channing St, Worcester: 12pm – 2pm
Charming turn of the century cape with 4 beds/2 baths and priced to make you move!
17 St. John St, North Brookfield: 12pm – 2pm
All the major updates are DONE in this colonial! Bonus is 500 gallons of FREE OIL! 5 bed/2.5 baths
57 Old Webster Rd, Oxford: 12pm – 1:30pm
Old meets new in this 4 bed/3 bath home that appears to be out of Old Sturbridge Village! Come see the distressed pine floors and claw foot tub!
33 Mendon, Worcester: 2:30pm – 4pm
Huge yard and easy in-town location! Perfect dollhouse and SO affordable!
6 Brown Street, North Brookfield: 2:30pm – 4pm
Retiring builder has offered up this unfinished new construction! Great price to get in and finish it off as YOU want!
39 Wilson St, Spencer: 2:30pm – 4pm
REAL country living with this home! NOT a short NOT bank owned NO septic issues! WOW!
82 Saundersdale, Charlton: 1pm – 3pm
Great location off of Dresser Hill with a full in-law! Land, 3 car garage and two living levels are highlights to this newer home. NOT a short sale!
67 Laurel Hill Lane, Holden: 12pm – 2pm
SO affordable with PRE-APPROVED short sale! Newer roof, newer windows, great yard and pool!
15 Canterbury Way, Marlborough: 1pm – 3pm
Beautiful end-unit in the 55+ community of Villages of Crane Meadow! One owner – all upgraded with fireplace!
275 Rumonoski Drive, Northbridge: 11am – 2:30pm
Great opportunity to own in a fantastic area! Comes with one year home warranty. Not a short sale or bank owned – just a solid house at a great price!
179 Rocky Road, Northbridge: 1pm – 2:30pm
Stunning colonial with massive family room on a beautiful tree-lined street. 15 mins to Worcester, 19 miles to Providence. Have it all for a great price on this 4 bed/2.5 bath/2 car colonial with custom build and first floor office.
39 July Road, Sudbury: 1pm – 3pm
So affordable for Sudbury and this charming updated home has a fantastic ½ acre wooded lot! Central a/c, updated kitchen, hardwoods, garage and finished area in basement. Own in Sudbury! Not a short!
10 Cranberry Meadow Shore Rd., Charlton: 12pm – 2pm
Brand new 2BR 2BA Ranch, open floor plan, granite counters, hardwoods all over, c-tile floors in kitchen & baths. 2 car attached garage.
1 Merrian St Auburn: 10:30am – 12pm
Reduced price on this charming cape on ¾ of an acre with a new Peerless Furnace! First floor laundry!
225 Highland Street, Holden: 12:30pm – 1:30pm
Fireplace…french doors…open family room…private wooded lot! This cape has it all with a great Holden location!
18 Nancy Drive, Rutland: 2pm – 3:30pm
10 room, 6 bedrooms and 2.5 baths in the colonial WITH an in-law! New roof, new windows, new hot water tank. Come see!
15 Laurel Dr, Ware –11:30am -1pm
3BR Ranch, lrg fenced private back yard.
13 Stony Brook Drive, Sturbridge – 11am – 1pm
Charming 3+BR center hall Cape w/2car gar, flat lot, granite, hdwds, multi-tierd deck on cul de sac.
217 Greenwich Rd, Ware – 10am – 11:15am
Beautiful brand new 3BR 2.5BA Ranch. Open concept kit/LR/DR, hdwds, fireplace.
77 Providence St, Mendon – 12pm – 2pm
4BR 2BA Dutch Col log home w/farmer’s porch, 3 seas sunroom, wide hdwd floors 2car gar
119 Stafford Rd, Unit 60, Charlton – 2:30pm – 4pm
Bright, light filled 2nd floor 2BR condo w/appl, w/d hkup in unit. Commuter friendly location & small pets allowed
“There’s a reason owning a home is called the American Dream,” says NAR President Ron Phipps. “Home ownership benefits individuals and families, strengthens our communities, and is integral to our nation’s economy. We hope that everyone who aspires to become a home owner will come out this weekend, not only to learn about the homes for sale in their local market, but also to find out more about how current and future public policies may affect their ability to achieve and sustain home ownership, now and in the future.”
Come out this weekend – take a peak! Not sure where to start – let me know and I’ll get you going. amymullen@remax.net, 508-784-0504, http://www.amymullenrealestate.com
Real Estate and *stuff * 